Early Prison Releases – Who Is Being Released and What Happens Next?

As Hundreds of Prisoners Are Released We Look At Who Could Be Released Next.

Hundreds of prisoners have begun leaving prisons in England and Wales under new early release rules introduced to relieve pressure on a prison system operating close to capacity. Around 4,500 prisoners are expected to be released in stages between October 2026 and June 2027 – but early release does not mean that the remainder of a criminal sentence simply disappears.

Why Are Prisoners Being Released Early?

The immediate reason for the changes is prison capacity.

At the beginning of the new scheme, Ministry of Justice figures showed 87,499 people in prison, representing approximately 98.2% of available capacity. The Government argues that allowing prisons to become completely full could have serious consequences throughout the criminal justice system, including the ability to accommodate people newly remanded or sentenced to custody.

The changes form part of the Sentencing Act 2026 and introduce a new progression model for people serving Standard Determinate Sentences.

Around 700 prisoners were expected to leave custody in the first wave in October, with approximately 4,500 releases anticipated across ten stages running until June 2027.

How Much of a Prison Sentence Will Now Be Served in Custody?

One of the most important things to understand is the difference between the sentence imposed by a court and the period of that sentence actually spent inside prison.

Under the new progression model, prisoners serving Standard Determinate Sentences will generally spend at least one-third of their sentence in custody. Those serving Standard Determinate Sentences for more serious offences will spend at least half in prison.

This replaces previous release points under which some prisoners would ordinarily have remained in custody for 40%, 50% or two-thirds of their sentence.

It does not mean that a three-year sentence, for example, is simply converted into a one-year sentence. Release from custody takes place within the sentence and the individual can remain subject to licence conditions and supervision in the community.

Behaviour in prison can also affect progression. The new system provides for prisoners who behave badly to remain in custody for longer rather than automatically progressing at the earliest possible point.

Are All Prisoners Eligible for Earlier Release?

No. The scheme does not simply open the prison gates to everyone who has completed a third of their sentence.

It applies to Standard Determinate Sentences and does not apply to people serving indeterminate sentences, such as life sentences, where release can depend upon consideration by the Parole Board. Extended Determinate Sentences are also outside the progression model.

Following a review of the proposals, further offence-based exclusions were introduced. These include rape, serious child sexual offences and grooming offences, together with offences involving unlawful killing, including manslaughter, and indecent assault.

This reduced the number of prisoners expected to benefit from the initial implementation of the scheme.

What Types of Offenders Could Be Released?

Eligibility should not be confused with an assessment that an offence was minor.

Because the scheme operates according to sentence type and specified exclusions, people convicted of a range of criminal offences can potentially qualify where they are serving an eligible Standard Determinate Sentence.

The first wave predominantly involved people serving shorter sentences of up to 19 months. Later stages will progressively affect longer sentences, with the implementation continuing through to June 2027.

This means the profile of those affected by the changes will alter as the scheme progresses.

What Conditions Apply After Early Release?

Leaving prison does not necessarily mean the end of restrictions upon an offender.

A person released on licence can be required to comply with conditions designed to manage risk and protect victims. Depending upon the individual circumstances, these can include requirements concerning where somebody lives, restrictions upon contact with particular people and electronic monitoring.

The Government has also expanded the use of geographical restrictions and electronic monitoring as part of its approach to supervising offenders in the community.

This can be particularly important where there is an identifiable victim. Conditions may, for example, prevent contact with that person or restrict an offender’s movements in order to reduce the likelihood of an unwanted encounter.

Can Someone Released Early Be Sent Back to Prison?

Yes. Early release should not be confused with the sentence having expired.

A person released on licence who breaches their conditions can potentially be recalled to prison. That may include circumstances where they commit another offence, make prohibited contact with a victim or fail to comply with requirements concerning an approved address.

This is one reason why understanding licence conditions is extremely important for somebody leaving custody. A condition that may appear relatively straightforward can have serious consequences if it is breached.

For an offender, release therefore represents a transition from custody to supervised life in the community rather than the removal of the remaining sentence.

Why Has the Early Release Scheme Been Controversial?

The changes have inevitably caused concern among some victims, particularly where an offender will leave custody earlier than they had originally expected.

Questions have also been raised about whether electronic monitoring and the Probation Service have sufficient resources to supervise a substantially increased number of people in the community.

From a criminal justice perspective, there are competing pressures. Prisons need sufficient capacity to accommodate people remanded and sentenced by the courts, while victims need confidence that sentences and protective measures have meaning. At the same time, people released from custody require effective supervision and support if reoffending is to be reduced.

The success of the new system will therefore depend on considerably more than simply creating additional prison spaces by releasing people earlier.

Further Releases Are Expected Until June 2027

The October releases are only the beginning of the implementation programme.

Ten stages are planned between October 2026 and June 2027, progressively bringing prisoners serving different sentence lengths within the new arrangements. Government estimates suggest around 4,500 prisoners could be released on the first day of the respective stages combined.

That makes understanding the distinction between a prison sentence, time served in custody and release on licence increasingly important.

Criminal Defence Advice on Sentencing, Release and Recall

For defendants and their families, sentencing law can be difficult to navigate. The sentence announced in court does not necessarily tell someone precisely how long they will physically remain in prison, while release can bring conditions which must continue to be followed in the community.

Questions can also arise where somebody is alleged to have breached their licence and faces recall to custody.

Morton’s Solicitors provides criminal defence advice and representation throughout criminal proceedings, including serious offences, sentencing and matters arising following release from custody.

For anyone affected by the changes, obtaining advice based upon the particular offence, sentence and individual circumstances is important. Early release is not an alternative to a criminal sentence – it changes where, and under what conditions, part of that sentence is served.

How We Can Help.

If you have any questions relating to prison sentencing and would like advice or legal representation – then don’t hesitate to call us now on 0161 477 1121 or email us.